By Iulia Beldean
Polymarket is a blockchain prediction platform that allows users to speculate on the outcome of real-world events, usually in popular culture, sports, economics, politics, and anything of interest or popular in media.
It was created during the first months of the Covid-19 pandemic by a 21-year-old New York University dropout in his apartment, monetising the global uncertainty and giving people in the US and over 100 other countries an opportunity to bet on real-world events and win or lose money in the process. It stood out against similar platforms by using a stablecoin cryptocurrency tied to the US dollar, offering users trust. The platform has relevance in European and EU affairs because of its influence in shaping public opinion, shifting attention from classic polls during US elections in 2024, especially among men who are either Gen Z or conservative, or even both, and also Polymarket’s primary users. Such polls are also created for many other elections in Europe, even if the company is banned or heavily restricted in those countries. The idea of Polymarket as offering a platform for following the development of major global events came from a meme regarding “monitoring the situation” originating from a viral photo of Amazon founder Jeff Bezos standing in his office, with the caption: "the masculine urge to monitor the situation". Polymarket took the meme further still by opening a bar called The Situation Room in Washington, DC, in March. The video of the launch showed mostly men.
This means a US online platform, supported by the Trump administration and in business with 1789 Capital, a firm that the US President joined as a partner in November 2024, can make predictions on EU affairs that have monetary weight for participants. It has over 53 thousand daily users and processed over $7.1 billion in volume in May alone, and acts as a self-fulfilling prophecy in public opinion.
The US came with clear intentions of fragmenting and weakening the EU in the current administration, including in the recent conversations about a summit composed of Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping as resembling a new Yalta, a trilateral meeting wishing to split the world into spheres of influence.
When trying to access Polymarket without a VPN from most countries in the EU, the UK or Lichtenstein, the user may be stopped from accessing the site, as gambling from a distance is illegal in most of the countries in the region. The company has been heavily banned or regulated, despite continuous lobbying. Even at home, the market platform has faced numerous legal issues, as subjects range from elections or political speeches, such as the recent elections in Sweden or Germany, to outright cynical betting on humanitarian causes like the probability of evacuation of Palestinians from Gaza within a certain fixed period. There are also reports of insider trading that can put military operations at risk. This incentivises bettors to wish for negative outcomes, as bets can reach sums of hundreds of thousands and up to a million dollars.
When it comes to regulation in the EU, Polymarket has tried to slowly appease the European market, as the Union has a population of around 452 million citizens. With more than 5% of the world population, it has great potential for future capitalisation, especially within specific parts of Western Europe. In June 2026, 9 EU gambling regulators wrote a joint statement targeting unlicensed platforms in the EU, among which Polymarket was also listed. In the same month, European Securities and Markets Authority Chair Verena Ross met with Polymarket’s legal staff in Brussels. A day later, Polymarket executives met with UK Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) CEO Nikhil Rathi. This is part of a larger strategy by the US company to intensify lobbying on the European continent, especially in the EU, to convince European lawmakers to introduce and regulate Polymarket within the legal framework of a financial product based on speculative investing, rather than a betting platform. This is why, in September, Polymarket formally joined Blockchain For Europe to align with EU-level crypto and blockchain policy networks.
No EU policy concessions have been made, and further pushes from Polymarket executives have been dismissed by EU lawmakers, as of October this year.
